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  • Eye on weather, supply

    Written by admin on 13/07/2018 Categories: 南京夜网

    The wheat market is battling peak harvest pressure in the US, as well as the general perceived oversupplyin global markets, and waxing and waning weather issues for US corn and soybean crops.
    Nanjing Night Net

    BIN-BURSTER: A strong winter harvest is putting a lot of pressure on US wheat futures. The USDA report for July has been somewhat negative for wheat.

    All futures garnered support in June as the market speculated about a dry, hot July based on La Nina weather patterns. Prices pulled back as weather concerns reduced, with wheat caught up in general market moves.

    We are facing the next round of forecasts into August, with hot, dry weather still a problem for finishing corn crops and the US soybean crop.Risk premiums get built into prices any time forecasts look like tending towards hotter conditions with less rain, and vice versa.

    The problem for wheat is that a bin-bursting winter harvest in the US is quite advanced.

    The oversupplycontinues to put pressure on US wheat futures, as the market trades through what will end up being the seasonal low for wheat.

    The USDA report for July has also been somewhat negative for wheat in that projected ending stock estimates for the US itself were raised another 1.5 million tonnes to 30.08 milltonnes.That will continue to be a dead weight for US futures.

    The positive news from the USDA report was a projected drop in global stocks from previous estimates, even though they too are projected to grow 9.18 mill tonnes year on year.

    Low wheat prices and strong supplies of feed grade wheats are seen as lifting wheat consumption for feed use.However, wheat will have to remain competitive against corn for higher assumed usage rates to be achieved.

    Outside of China and the USwheat stocks are still under pressure, tightening 1.11 mill tonnes year on year since the June USDA estimates were released.

    Year on year stocks outside of China and the US are projected to fall by 9.89 mill tonnes.In terms of price support in global markets, we will need that tightening of stocks to translate into a lift in demand for US wheat to reverse the ongoing buildup of US stocks.

    We could see demand shift back to the US by more than current numbers are suggesting.The wheat crop in France continues to be wound back, both in volume and quality.There are also quality concerns for parts of the Russian crop.

    Already,US wheat exports are running more strongly than they were at this time last year.If demand for milling wheats pushes more demand to the US, it may provide the trigger for US ending stocks to be wound back from current estimates.

    That will become a positive driver for global milling wheat prices, which in turn will determine the fortunes of Australian wheat growers.

    This story Administrator ready to work first appeared on Nanjing Night Net.

    Comments Off on Eye on weather, supply
  • 其中最糟糕的是;以外币收支作为本国货币之“锚”,再加以大开门的资本市场,这为国际资本周期性收割开了方便之门。 2019-07-15
  • 恒动我“芯”—— HUAWEI WATCH尊赏沙龙即将亮相兰境艺术中心 2019-07-15
  • 日本战犯侵华罪行自供 2019-07-08
  • 全面落实新时代党的建设总要求br不断提高机关党的建设质量 2019-07-08
  • 夏季养生小常识 多吃酸食少吃冷 让你更健康-美食资讯 2019-07-01
  • 7月18日市府新闻发布会 2019-06-19
  • 茶圣陆羽栽培过的茶树  苏州小众茶的“前世今生” 2019-06-04
  • 未来三天全国天气预报:台风给东南沿海带来大风 2019-06-04
  • 百姓故事“触摸山城温情 讲述百姓故事”——华龙网 2019-06-01
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